Sunday, April 26, 2009

planning is dead

Long-term planning, in its traditional sense, is dead. The ability to specifically predict the tone, tenor, overall shape, and other details of a corporation, society, family, or any other complex organization more than a few years in the future is just as much a dream as Laplace's idea that we could mechanically extrapolate what will be happening in the world, given enough information about its current state. But there are other sorts of long-term planning.

Agent-based modeling assumes that the simple rules which govern interactions between individuals can produce evolving (even revolutionary sometimes) systems, but are relatively stable themselves. By creating modular systems, which give workers pre-made pieces that are rigidly constrained but allow freedom of what to build with those pieces, we can effectively design systems in a few dimensions but must leave them open in the broader shape and telos.

But maybe other abstract characteristics, such as values, morals, and beliefs in a society or strategic plan in a company, can be looked at in terms of the effect they really do have (because obviously they don't - in fact - cause their respective organizations to comply with their edicts). There is likely some systematic effect of these kinds of ideas on the outcomes of human organizations. We could call it a phemonenological view of teleology.

As our politicians, CEOs, and futurists begin to realize that we can't predict or shape the future at the macro scale, we will be forced to focus on getting things better at the micro-scale. Focusing on the details, as designers would say, will become the prerogative of society in general.

No comments: