space ghetto matrix

carefully craft insights, then put them next to random photos from the internet and try to deduce the relationship, leading to deep, unexpected insights about the topic at hand. Meets JG's criterion of mysticism.

planning is dead

Long-term planning, in its traditional sense, is dead. The ability to specifically predict the tone, tenor, overall shape, and other details of a corporation, society, family, or any other complex organization more than a few years in the future is just as much a dream as Laplace's idea that we could mechanically extrapolate what will be happening in the world, given enough information about its current state. But there are other sorts of long-term planning.

Agent-based modeling assumes that the simple rules which govern interactions between individuals can produce evolving (even revolutionary sometimes) systems, but are relatively stable themselves. By creating modular systems, which give workers pre-made pieces that are rigidly constrained but allow freedom of what to build with those pieces, we can effectively design systems in a few dimensions but must leave them open in the broader shape and telos.

But maybe other abstract characteristics, such as values, morals, and beliefs in a society or strategic plan in a company, can be looked at in terms of the effect they really do have (because obviously they don't - in fact - cause their respective organizations to comply with their edicts). There is likely some systematic effect of these kinds of ideas on the outcomes of human organizations. We could call it a phemonenological view of teleology.

As our politicians, CEOs, and futurists begin to realize that we can't predict or shape the future at the macro scale, we will be forced to focus on getting things better at the micro-scale. Focusing on the details, as designers would say, will become the prerogative of society in general.

science of quality

Christopher Bartneck claims that design is the science of quality. I was meditating on that and thought that maybe quality is all the stuff that other sciences can't qualify. any better thoughts?

invasive species

Henry King (of Doblin) makes a widely-recognized observation that the recession will lead to innovation. He takes it one small step farther: as the economy picks up again, we'll see emerging new business models and unexpected fast-growing players in many stagnant industries.
These are currently tiny and invisible firms, and as the economy picks up steam they'll take off and grow much faster than their peers. It seems we without jobs right now are extremely well-placed to take advantage of this by looking for such innovation and placing ourselves within these types of companies.

decision science

It's not that I'm anti-social, but I don't participate in the green movement, nor in the race to save all who are suffering in Africa and elsewhere, nor usually even to keep my family and friends updated and in-the-loop about me and my life. I haven't made a conscious decision to behave in these ways, and I haven't made a conscious decision not to.

You might say that it's my culture to do them, but my culture is so diffuse and heterogeneous that it would be silly to characterize it this - or any other - way. You might say I'm just lazy, but if that's true then at least 99% of humans are lazy, and again that seems a silly way to characterize things.

Instead, I'm going to propose that, even though I roughly understand the negative consequences of using styrofoam, not volunteering for an unpaid internship in India, and not calling my mother, I do them because they benefit me as a person. Although I am dedicated to the greater good in some ways, it's not in my actions.

There are a myriad reasons for this, including personal inertia, my own fear and uncertainty, and my sense of achievement from all the other activities which I personally value more than environmentalism and other trendy worldviews. There's a growing field of study designed to deal with these issues - decision science. I don't know much about it and don't have time to learn right now - back to homework!

droughts and margins

Droughts kill societies. Along with using up resources, the straight out vagaries of nature are not amenable to our long-term goals. It's not always our own human nature that drives the death of society - although in this light these difficulties also drive our evolution.

This is important for designers because we must realize that it's important to design for the extreme users, like the cliff-dwellers of New Mexico around 1400, who are running low on water, crops, and tress, whose neighbors are coming around to kill them and steal their supplies, and who have no hope that the drought will ever end.

What kind of products and systems could help in this situation? The long now foundation begins to offer an answer, but it's even more helpful to think about extreme sustainability. What can we reuse? What can we make to last a few years longer? What can we refill or repair instead of throwing it away?

While I hope we'll be able to continue along our current trajectory and build a space elevator in the coming decades, we'll be better and safer to focus on raising the floor of the conditions that society reverts to in times of war, plague, and drought, when our complicated systems break down. There is a need to keep working on the most basic mechanisms to make them more robust and more broadly applicable. Even if we can make writing, growing wheat, or storing water 1/100th of 1% more efficient, we can transform the world.

awareness

I think the zeitgiest of the past couple decades has been about the horror and difficulties of self-awareness, how when you realize you're doing something or participating in something, it's over. But there are certain things where you can be aware and still do it, and perhaps even a state of mind that lets you be aware without destroying what you're aware of.

attention economy

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attention_economy

A highly relevant and timely idea, the attention economy is coming to be but not in the way expressed in this article at least. It lists some of Ronald Coase's ideas about how to implement attention transactions, but doesn't notice that tools like digg and delicious are already accomplishing it.